Canada Inflation Rate Update for April 2026
Some very good news this morning with the release of Canada’s inflation numbers. These numbers will be looked at in a very positive way from the Bank of Canada when the next interest rate decision is being made on June 10th. This is the last inflation print prior to that meeting, with the next one on June 22nd. The good news is the 19.2% increase in fuel inflation does not appear to be impacting broader inflation data in any significant way.
Key Inflation Points:
- 2.80% is the headline number and that’s well below what the market expectations of 3.10%.
- CPI Trimmed Mean is at a 5yr low.
- CPI Median is also at a 5yr low.
- All 3 Bank of Canada key measures are below market expectations.
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/calendar
Inflation Details:
The increase to 2.8% from the previous month’s reading of 2.4% is attributable to the disruption of energy supply from the Middle East, due to the war in the region, raised prices of fuel and power.
Transportation inflation surged to 7.6% from 3.7% amid 19.2% surge in energy prices (vs 3.9% in March).
In turn, prices for core sectors of the economy grew at a more moderate pace, aligned with the Bank of Canada’s note that it did not see higher energy prices spread into inflation expectations so far.
The trimmed-mean and median core inflation rates followed by the BoC fell to 2% and 2.1%, respectively, below market expectations to their lowest in five years.
Food inflation eased to 3.5% from 3.7%, and shelter inflation inched marginally higher to 1.8% vs 1.7%. source: Statistics Canada
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/inflation-cpi
Now the Bad News for the Bond Market
The Canadian 5 year bond yield is influenced heavily by the US 10 YR Treasury yield, but is also influenced by the global bond market. The good inflation news has not translated yet into any significant lowering of bond yields this morning and CNBC has our 5 year bond yield at a “52 Week High Today”.
Here’s a quick summary as to why this is:
- It has a lot to do with oil prices rising, global inflation fears (bonds hate inflation) and global government deficits (bonds hate more bonds).
(Bloomberg) — Global bond yields hovered near multiyear highs as rising energy prices stoked inflation concerns.
30-year US yields were the most elevated since 2007 and the rate on similar-maturity German debt was the loftiest in 15 years. Japanese government bonds notched the biggest losses, with the 30-year yield surging to its highest since the maturity was first sold in 1999.
New 52 Week High Today
Canada 5 Year BondCA5Y-CA:Canada
Yield | 8:51 AM EDT
3.344%
-0.007
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/CA5Y-CA
Global Bond Market Route. Some Articles:
10-year Treasury yield touches highest in a year
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/treasury-yields-inflation-bond-rout-oil.html
Japan Yields Rise to Record Highs on Global Inflation Fears
United Kingdom 10Y Bond Yield Hits Near 18-year High
https://www.tradingview.com/news/te_news:551497:0-uk-10y-bond-yield-hits-near-18-year-high/
Global Bond Yields at Multiyear Highs on Mounting Inflation Risk
Global bond yields hovered near multiyear highs as rising energy prices stoked inflation concerns.